December 2, 2005
Calling All Party Leaders: What is the Kyoto Plan?
A United Nations conference on climate change in underway in Montreal. The purpose is to develop a roadmap to reduce carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) -
more commonly known as greenhouse gases - when the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012. Unfortunately, Canada's election campaign is diverting media and
public attention away from this global meeting, which concludes on Dec. 9.
Before a second international agreement is signed, it is probably worth reviewing Ottawa's progress under the first. Kyoto requires Canada to cut emissions of carbon dioxide to 6% below 1990 levels by 2008-12. Six per
cent might not seem like a big cut, but factor in Canada's greenhouse gas growth since 1990, which the UN says had increased by 24% at the end of 2003, and suddenly the scope of reduction becomes clear. With today's technology the only way for Ottawa to achieve Kyoto targets is to reduce energy output and slow economic growth.
Since 1990, the Canadian economy has grown an impressive 45%. Liberal Environment Minister Stéphane Dion has acknowledged a strong economy and job growth has worked against Kyoto. Unless Ottawa is willing to trigger a made-in-Canada recession it will fail to meet its emissions goal. If this sounds alarmist consider that greenhouse gases increase with economic
growth. To roll them back means shrinking the economy or achieving negative growth. The economic term for 2 quarters of negative growth is a recession.
It is good news that no government hoping to be re-elected - today or down the road - can advocate inflicting the economic pain on Canadian workers
that Kyoto requires. So how might Ottawa fulfill its obligations? One scenario is for the federal government to purchase so-called greenhouse gas credits from developing nations, like Russia and the Ukraine. Because of the collapse of Communism in 1989 - and the economies of Eastern Europe and Russia soon after - Moscow and others have a surplus of "unused" emissions to sell today.
Many economists and environmentalists regard this as purchasing "hot air" since nations that sell surplus gases need not reduce their current CO2 output levels. The result is Canada will continue to pump out emissions and claim victory while it pays foreign governments for credits. This is absurd public policy: tax dollars spent overseas with no tangible benefits to our environment, the economy or Canadian taxpayers.